Morgan Stanley predicts that the Egyptian pound's exchange rate will continue to decline in September or October, coinciding with the first and second reviews of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Moody's upcoming review of Egypt's credit rating in August poses the first risk, potentially leading to a downgrade. The second risk is related to the IMF's decision on the loan revisions, expected to be completed between September and December. Delays in implementing agreed reforms, including a flexible exchange rate, have caused setbacks in the loan disbursement. The third risk is Russia's revocation of the Black Sea grain initiative, impacting Egypt's grain transportation. Progress in the IMF program is crucial for Egypt's financing, and the first review is still pending. The completion of the reviews is anticipated between September and December.